Outcome Forecasting Tool
Every year, educators across the nation set goals for their students. By looking at trends in historical data, educators can set realistic goals for the future. I designed the Outcome Forecasting Tool (OFT) to help educators apply statistical forecasting methods to their data and set more accurate goals. With just a few clicks, the OFT will provide predictions and visualizations using four forecasting methods; simple exponential smoothing, Holt linear exponential smoothing, naïve random walk, and cubic spline smoothing.
Directions:
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Click the "Choose a spreadsheet file" button and select the file you want to analyze.
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Once the file is uploaded, a dropdown menu will appear. Select the column from your spreadsheet that includes your historical data.
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The tool will automatically generate a summary table that displays the hi, low, and expected outcomes for five horizons, or time intervals as well as a visualization.
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Use the tabs at the top of the tool to explore the outcomes of the four statistical forecasting methods.
Remember not to upload personally identifiable information when using this tool. If you are uncertain whether your data is appropriate for analysis with this tool, please consult with a member of your organization.
If you need additional help or want more detailed information about how to use the OFT or interpret its results, please review the technical directions page. You can also use this sample file to practice.
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Preferred Citation: Courtney, M.B. (2023). Outcome Forecasting Tool. Courtney Consulting LLC. (Date Accessed). https://www.matthewbcourtney.com/forecast
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