Outcome Forecasting Tool

Every year, educators across the nation set goals for their students. By looking at trends in historical data, educators can set realistic goals for the future. I designed the Outcome Forecasting Tool (OFT) to help educators apply statistical forecasting methods to their data and set more accurate goals. With just a few clicks, the OFT will provide predictions and visualizations using four forecasting methods; simple exponential smoothing, Holt linear exponential smoothing, naïve random walk, and cubic spline smoothing.

 

Directions:

  1. Prepare your data. Simply drop your historical data in to Column A of a spreadsheet. Save your data as a .CSV file.

  2. Upload your data to the OFT by selecting “Browse” and selecting your file from the list. Remember, you should never upload personally identifiable data for yourself or your students to the web!

  3. The OFT will automatically produce a table with the next four predicted values and a graph that shows your historical data (the black line), your projected outcomes (the dots), and the confidence intervals (the blue and grey area).

  4. The read out from this page can be copied and pasted into a document or slide show to share with your data team.

 

If you need additional help or want more detailed information about how to use the OFT or interpret its results, please review the technical directions page. You can also use this sample file to practice.